Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
