A mere eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach berated him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
